Bird Watching

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. 

We can look at Len Friedman's Ragozin Insider before the 2009 Kentucky Derby and read that, based on his Ragozin speed figures, his handicapping comment was "Forget this bird with a 10-12 (rating) in his last two starts."

I would assume this information--"forget this bird"--was also handed out to the people who paid $25 for his audio analysis of the race.

But a little foresight beyond "numbers" could have provided a clue.

After Mine That Bird's Kentucky Derby win a lot of people were trying to explain what they considered a fluke, including Andrew Beyer's post-Derby comments in the Daily Racing Form.

"Presumably," Beyer wrote, "Mine That Bird improved because he relished the sloppy track - something no handicapper could have anticipated before the race."

Well, if handicapping includes research, it wouldn't have taken a lot of digging to "anticipate" a respectable showing from Canada's two-year-old champion.

Mine That Bird's sire, Birdstone, raced twice on off-tracks.  In the 2004 Kentucky Derby, where he finished eighth on a sloppy track, the chart read as follows:  "Birdstone was pinched back a bit at the start then steadied in traffic in the early stages, worked his way forward between horses at the half mile pole, raced within striking distance on the turn then lacked a strong closing response."

Sounds like more of a troubled early trip to me than an aversion to the slop.  A more telling race was his other off-track start, his racing debut in the mud at Saratoga, a maiden special race.  He won that by 12 1/2-lengths!

Mine That Bird's dam, Mining My Own, was unraced, so we go to his second dam, Aspenelle.  She only raced four times, all at Woodbine, but two of those races were on a sloppy track.  One was an allowance win, the other a second place finish in the 1993 Canadian Oaks.

So are you going to tell me that there is no precedent for off-track ability in Mine That Bird's immediate family?

Gee, Mr. Beyer, don't handicappers look at pedigrees anymore?  Or are they so immersed in your Beyer Speed Figures and Ragozin speed figures that they can't be bothered with such trivial facts?

Then There's The Preakness...

...and everyone sure got on the bandwagon after Mine That Bird overcame a troubled trip and came charging down the stretch to finish only one length behind Rachel Alexandra on a fast track.

Now Calvin Borel did say that  "Alexandra the Great" struggled some on the Pimlico surface, but then Mine That Bird didn't have the best of it until he got clear.

As for the Belmont, let's not forget that Birdstone won the 2004 Belmont Stakes.  Now he did have a break after the Kentucky Derby by skipping the Preakness, so he was a fresher commodity, and while stallions don't necessarily breed in accordance with how they ran, that's a pedigree element to consider.

But I'm sure at this point the "numbers" people will take credit if they select, and he wins, the Belmont.

Which reminds me of the old adage, "Numbers are like loose women, you can do anything you want with them."

Remembering Manila

You probably read that Manila died in Turkey earlier this year after suffering an aortic rupture at the age of 26. 

That he was even in Turkey was a sad commentary on the lack of vision that seems to permeate the American breeding industry.

It was no less than Joe Hirsch, when asked about the best grass horses he had ever seen, replied simply: "Round Table and Manila."

It was also a sad moment for Ellen, who wrote a two-page article about his passing in Pedlines #143.

"Manila," she said at the end of the article, "like so many grass horses before him, was lost to us out of ignorance.  Here was a superb physical specimen of great character and beautiful pedigree.  He was kind, sensible and talented to the point of true greatness.  That he should have been so carelessly used by American breeders is nothing less than a national disgrace."

Last fall, on his 11th nomination, Manila was finally elected to the Racing Hall of Fame.  According to the Blood-Horse account of the awards presentations, "The biggest laugh came when Mike Shannon, owner of inductee Manila, thanked the person that has believed enough in his horse's merits to continue nominating him for inclusion in the Hall of Fame."

"People asked me how it felt to get in after being nominated 10 times and I said, 'It feels better than getting turned down 11 times.'  But this Bud's for the person that kept nominating him.  You would think after the first seven or eight times, that person would have given up."

Well, Mike, as I have learned, when it comes to supporting horses she believes in, Ellen doesn't give up that easily.

Prediction of the Year - 2009

According to the Thoroughbred Times, back in February Maryland-based trainer Kevin Boniface had the following quote in the Catholic Review about a Go for Gin colt that was bred at his family's Bonita Farm in Darlington, Maryland:

"(Cadre) is going to win the Preakness this year.  You heard it here first."

Okay, Kevin, whatever you say.

On Distance Racing

On the surface it seemed like a message to breeders when the Breeders' Cup announced that this year's Breeders' Cup Marathon will be lengthened from 1 1/2-miles to 1 3/4-miles.

"In furthering our commitment for a high caliber extended distance race in the World Championships, the Racing and Nominations Committee strongly recommended the lengthening of the Marathon to 14 furlongs to bring the race in line with the category standards of the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities," said Robert T. Manfuso, Chairman of the Breeders' Cup Racing and Nominations Committee.

Sounds like a real challenge to breeders to get some stamina back into these horses, right?

But then you read between the lines to learn that the real reason was because the race is at Santa Anita.

"The extended distance of the Marathon also allows the race to begin near the six furlong chute at Santa Anita," said Pamela Blatz-Murff, Breeders' Cup Senior Vice President of Racing.  "This will give the horses a longer run into the first turn."

Anyone for a Future Book wager that it will revert to 1 1/2-miles next year when it's run at Churchill Downs?

Or that it will still only have a $500,000 purse when all the other Breeders' Cup races are $1-million or more?

They Used To Have Racing in California

I don't know why California is worried about not having enough horses to fill their race cards, at the current rate they won't have to worry about it because there won't be any tracks left to race at.

Consider that they tore down historic Bay Meadows, which is still a pile of rubble as developers ponder the economy and the profitability of more condos and a new Safeway.

Is Golden Gate Fields, which sits right on the San Francisco Bay and is the only other major track in Northern California, safe?  Developers have been licking their chops over that property for years but the tufted titmouse or whatever the environmentalists say live there have held them off.  So far.

Hollywood Park, the "Track of the Lakes and Flowers," is supposed to be next on the list of wrecking ball projects unless the good citizens of Inglewood can convince their leaders that Hollywood Park is about the only reason anyone would want to visit Inglewood in the first place.  That hope is fading fast as the Inglewood Planning Commission recommended approval of a redevelopment plan to the city council, who will meet on May 26 to presumably show their greed and lack of any consideration of what Hollywood Park has given their otherwise worthless community for the last 70 years.

Santa Anita?  Bankrupt Magna Entertainment Corporation is including that in its auction.  Bids will be accepted until July 31 and if required an auction will be conducted on September 8 in New York.

Think the forces in California's Thoroughbred racing industry would have the nerve to put up the money and try to save "The Great Race Place?"

That's another one for the Future Book.

Now we learn that Governor Arnold "Terminator" Schwarznegger, in an effort to solve the state's financial crisis, has proposed selling a bunch of properties, including the Del Mar Fairgrounds.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Schwarznegger's California Performance Review Board listed the Del Mar Fairgrounds' market potential at $1.4-billion, calling the property "perhaps the state's most valuable commercially used property."

The paper also pointed out that it would take two to five years for any deal to close, which wouldn't help the current estimates that the state will run out of money this summer, and there's certainly no assurance that the Legislature would agree to such a plan.

But the Terminator threw it out there, and you can bet some developers would love to salute it.

Want to race in California in a few years?  Go to the Humboldt County Fair in Ferndale (population about 1,400) where they might still have horse racing to go with the cloned mule racing they offer.

Rumors, Rumors, Whozgotta Rumor

An acquaintance swears they heard a couple of horsemen at a sale talking about an unnamed pedigree analyst who charges beau coup bucks for his expert matings but is in reality suggesting stallions at farms who provide him with a bit of financial remuneration for steering clients to their stallions.

Obviously the two were obviously sadly misinformed.  I mean, who in the squeaky clean Thoroughbred industry would even consider such unscrupulous greed.  Everyone is honest and above reproach, right?

Believe that and, for a fee, I'll sell you a genuine autograph from the Easter Bunny.

Our American Heritage: Let's Keep Breeding The Weakest to the Worst

According to a press release, Grade 1 winner Request for Parole has been shuttled to Argentina, according to Alejo Gancedo, owner of Estacion de Monta Don Petiso, one of the partners in the venture.

"On top of his outstanding racing career, what's fascinating about Request for Parole is that his pedigree is free of Mr. Prospector," Gancedo said.  "Given how many mares in the market today are inbred 2 and 3 times to Mr. Prospector, Request for Parole offers a complete outcross we feel will appeal to many South American breeders."

Well, it would probably appeal to a few U.S. breeders as well, but they hardly get the chance if the horse gets hauled off to South America.  And you wonder why U.S. pedigrees are so saturated with dangerous inbreeding?

Let's Hear It From A Daily Racing Form Reader

If you think the subject of dangerous inbreeding is limited to a few alarmists, how about the following letter from Nathan Mair of Bronx, New York, that appeared in the Daily Racing Form online Letters to the Editor on March 27:

"As a horse racing enthusiast who has been betting on horses seriously for the past seven years, I have long been concerned about the long-term health of the sport.

"Initially, I was worried most about the prevalent use of drugs, including anabolic steroids (which are quite possibly not even the tip of the iceberg of drugs being used today).

"As I have become more interested in pedigrees, however, I am just as concerned about inbreeding.  It is distressful to see the prevalence of inbreeding amongst horses with the Native Dancer/Raise a Native/Mr. Prospector line.

"What is most disconcerting is that these three horses sired so many progeny on their own that it is becoming nearly impossible to find horses who do not have multiple connections to each of them.  Not to mention Northern Dancer, whose grandfather was Native Dancer, and who was one of the most prolific sires of the last 50 years.  In fact, when looking through pedigrees, it is often a relief if you can only find two instances of these four horses.  Simple biology dictates that this inbreeding will produce horses who are more prone to breaking down.

"I have seen some trainers mention the problem of inbreeding.  It has been brought up when incidents like the death of Eight Belles occur, but it has not received anywhere near the attention that the drugs have.

"Bottom line: We have been witnessing a  weakening of the breed.  Forget about the days of seeing Kelsos and Foregos run two miles.  Most horses these days are struggling to get seven furlongs, and heaven forbid they should race more than three times in a form cycle.

"There should be rules as to the amount of inbreeding a horse can have."

Off the Road to the Cripple Crown

On March 25, trainer John Ward said that Beethoven would probably not make it to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1).

"There was some heat in a tendon in a front leg [Wednesday] morning," Ward said.  "It seems minor, not extreme, but we decided it's best to not make a minor situation worse.  It's possible he could be back in the entries in the not-too-distant future."

One would like to think that they had a pretty good clue that something was amiss with Beethoven four days earlier when he worked five furlongs at Gulfstream Park in 1:09.80.  Yes, I said five furlongs.  I have a pet turtle that could probably get five furlongs in 1:09.80.

Well, John Ward is an excellent horseman, if he says it's minor, then it must be so. 

Given that, I won't even mention that Beethoven is inbred 4S x 3D to Mr. Prospector  (and 5S x 6S x 4D to Raise a Native).